Renewables to Supply Half of Global Electricity by 2030: IEA Report

Renewables will supply half of global electricity by 2030, driven by solar, wind, and supportive policies, says the IEA.
 

Renewable energy will account for half of the world's electricity needs by 2030, a new report by the International Energy Agency says. Solar is the firm driver of this transition. This growth is being driven by favourable economics, combined with supportive government policies. The IEA report also forecasts that by the end of the decade, renewable power capacity will soar. In fact, it will provide more energy than the combined current power capacity of China, the European Union, India, and the United States.

Massive Increase in Global Renewable Energy Capacity

The IEA's Renewables 2024 report shows exciting growth for renewable energy. Between 2024 and 2030, we will add over 5,500 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity. This amount is nearly three times what we added from 2017 to 2023. A key part of this growth will come from solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. Large solar energy plants will play a major role in this increase. So will rooftop installations by businesses and households.

The wind energy sector is also set to make a strong comeback. The report predicts that wind power will double its growth during this same period. This is important because wind and solar are now the cheapest ways to generate new electricity. What's key too is that this trend is true in almost every country. So we can expect these renewable sources to lead the way in energy production.

China Leads the Way in Renewable Energy Race

China is set to provide nearly 60% of the world’s new renewable energy capacity by 2030. By then, China will have almost half of the total renewable power capacity worldwide. This is a big increase from the 33% share it held in 2010. While China leads in overall capacity, India is growing the fastest among major economies.

Meeting Global Renewable Energy Goals

The IEA report indicates that around 70 countries, representing 80% of global renewable power capacity, are on track to meet or surpass their current renewable energy goals for 2030. Yet, this growth falls slightly short of the goal set by almost 200 countries at the COP28 climate summit. The target was to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030. According to the IEA, capacity will grow to 2.7 times its 2022 level by that year. Still, the report emphasises that governments can meet the tripling goal if they act to seize near-term opportunities. This includes making bold commitments in their Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement and improving international cooperation, especially to reduce high financing costs in emerging and developing economies.

Overcoming Challenges in Renewable Energy Integration

The secure integration of renewable energy into existing power systems is one of the major challenges at present. For example, wind and solar are unpredictable energy sources because they depend on the weather. So when the supply exceeds demand, the excess gets wasted - a process called curtailment. In some places, up to 10% of renewable electricity goes unused like this.

Fixing this will require governments to increase the flexibility of power systems. To do so they should update the electricity grid and boost energy storage capacity. The report highlights the need to build and upgrade 25 million kilometres of power grids. Additionally, it calls for 1,500 GW of storage by 2030. These actions will help increase the worldwide usage of renewable energy.

Wind and Solar to Dominate Power Generation

By the end of the decade, wind and solar PV will account for 30% of global electricity generation, doubling their current share. This shift will have a transformative effect on electricity systems worldwide. However, governments must ramp up efforts to integrate these sources into their power grids securely.

Countries can improve the situation by streamlining permitting processes and resolving policy uncertainties. Such actions would pave the way for an even larger share of electricity to come from renewable energy sources.

Growth of Renewable Fuels

Renewable electricity is growing fast, but renewable fuels are falling behind. For example, biofuels, biogases, hydrogen, and e-fuels are still not keeping up. These fuels are vital for cutting emissions in sectors that are hard to electrify like heavy industry and long-distance transport. Yet, renewable fuels remain more expensive than fossil fuels. So the report anticipates that their global market share will stay under 6% by 2030.

In this regard, the IEA report stresses the need for better policies. So governments need to step up and provide more support. Strong incentives for example can boost the production and use of these cleaner fuels.

Manufacturing Capacity for Renewable Technologies

The report also considers the state of manufacturing for renewable energy technologies, in particular solar PV. By the end of 2024, the global solar manufacturing capacity will surpass 1,100 GW. This is a factor of more than two times higher than forecasted demand. This surge in manufacturing, is at large concentrated in China, leading to a drop in solar module prices. Module prices have more than halved since early 2023. But this price drop also meant huge financial losses for some manufacturers.

The drive for industrial competitiveness is expanding solar manufacturing. The countries, namely India and the U.S., are looking to triple their solar production by 2030. However, the cost of making solar panels in these countries is higher than in China. While U.S. costs are three times higher, in India, the cost is double that of China's cost.

Balancing Costs and Benefits of Local Manufacturing

As countries work to increase their renewable energy capacity, policymakers must consider the trade-offs between local manufacturing and cheaper imports. Local manufacturing can create jobs and enhance energy security, but it comes at a higher cost. Striking the right balance will be crucial. It will help maintain a competitive and resilient renewable energy market.

The Path Forward for Renewable Energy

Renewable energy's role in worldwide electricity generation will continue growing. Solar and wind carry on leading the sector, with renewables expected to meet half of the global electricity demand by 2030. But for this to occur, governments must continue their support of renewable energy. They must continue creating favourable policies, invest in infrastructure, and work together internationally. By doing so, every nation will have a strong and long-lasting impact on the future of our planet.

What the IEA report indicates well is that the world is on track, but it still has a long way to go. Indeed, transport and heavy industry are sectors that continue to require serious attention. So, governments around the world should take immediate action to make sure renewable energy grows at the right speed. The rationale is simple: meet climate goals and ensure a sustainable future for all.