More needs to be done to meet Paris climate target

The world could exhaust its carbon budget as early as 2028, Mohammed Atif, Area Manager Energy Middle East & Africa, DNV GL told the Middle East Energy (MEE) conference 2020 on 3 March.

Atif shared the highlights of DNV’s latest World Energy Outlook, which concludes that the energy transition is affordable, but much more needs to be done if global warming is to be limited to 1.5 degrees Celsius. On the current trajectory, the world will see 2.5 degrees of warming by 2050, which will have dire consequences for ecosystems and our lifestyles.

According to DNV, world energy will peak in 2033. Atif said between now and 2025 global oil demand will flatten as a result of the electrification of transport and an increasing focus on energy efficiency. While global population and GDP will continue to expand in the future, there will be a decoupling of GDP growth and energy usage.

By 2032, half of all new passenger car sales are expected to be electric. Between 2019 and 2050, two thirds of new power generation capacity additions will be wind and solar, and by 2050, 44 per cent of the world’s primary energy will come from non-fossil fuels.

At present, 3.9 per cent of global GDP is spent on energy, but by 2050 it is estimated this will fall to 1.9 per cent.  Atif said this proves that the energy transition is affordable.

However, the projected reduction in fossil fuel emissions under the plans that currently exist will not be sufficient to meet the targets of the Paris Agreement.

Atif told the conference that carbon capture and storage must be part of the solution along with renewables and energy efficiency, and he added that carbon tax might also have a role to play.